Joaquin Phoenix vs. Tobey Maguire
Battle of the Boyish-yet-Smoldering Next Wave Thespians

When you're the not-untalented, boyish-yet-smoldering, younger sibling of a well-regarded, widely mythologized, self-destructive actor who died tragically (and romantically), and you have a cool and memorable name, and you land a showy role in a small but highly publicized indie film with Nicole Kidman, and then you start dating one of Hollywood's most widely adored young actresses (herself from a famous showbiz family), and you land on the cover of Vanity Fair, you might assume that you're on pretty sure footing, career-wise, and you'd probably be right, except, of course, if you're Joaquin "you may remember me as Leaf" Phoenix, and you've just noticed that you've kind of slipped off the radar screen in the past year, and that you were overshadowed in your last semi-forgettable project by another media-friendly pretty-boy (Vince Vaughn), all of which would normally be okay, except that there's suddenly this other young actor, who's maybe not quite as good-looking or mystique-enshrouded, more heavy on the boyish and not so much on the smoldering, really, and who certainly has no cute scars on his lip, but who can act crop-circles around you, and who, unlike most young actors, seems to be able to pull off a beard (!), and who got to do a Woody Allen movie already, and more than held his own in an act-fest like The Ice Storm, and who, with Ride With the Devil and The Cider House Rules, actually seems to have some career momentum and acting range, two things you haven't had for awhile (if ever), not to mention the fact that the attention previously expended on your budding familial acting dynasty seems to have shifted over to the those damned Arquettes when you weren't looking -- well, you know what you're likely feeling right now? The hot breath of obsolescence on your neck, that's what.

Advantage: Tobey Maguire.