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Handicapping Oscar's Best- and Worst-Dressed

We're not saying we can predict the future. We're just saying that we've watched a lot of award shows, and seen a lot of movie premieres on Entertainment Tonight, and we have an idea of who, at the Oscars™, is likely to look good, and whose sartorial non-stylings will stink up the joint.

Best-Dressed: Whose style and elegance will leave us all breathless?

Cate Blanchett: Having been robbed of the Best Actress Oscar™ last year, Cate Blanchett seems to have made a career out of showing up Gwyneth Paltrow. And we're fine with that. Last year, her delicately embroidered dress was surely among the best of show (and was decidedly more attractive than Paltrow's ill-fitting Dubble Bubble-coloured "gown"), and since her film roles this year have called for her to fill out clothes ranging from skin-tight Jersey Girl jeans (in Pushing Tin) to refined '50s suits (in The Talented Mr. Ripley), we have no doubt that her Oscar™ outfit will work just as well. Odds: 3 to 1

Catherine Keener: Apart from a relatively small crowd of indie movie fans who know and love her from Walking and Talking and Living in Oblivion, no one knows who Catherine Keener is. For the few seconds her face is on screen, along with her five fellow Best Supporting Actress nominees, she'll get more exposure than she's had over the entire course of her career thus far -- and that's not even taking into account the coverage she'll get if she wins. If Keener is canny, she'll have engaged the services of a proven stylist -- perhaps the same person who bought that simple lilac Prada dress for Uma Thurman, a few years back (when she was nominated in the same category), that everyone was talking about and designers were copying for months afterward. Sad but true: If Keener can eke out an identity as "that girl with the great dress," she will get more work. Because we already like her, we hope she looks fantastic. Odds: 5 to 1

Haley Joel Osment: Because it's really hard to find a band-collar shirt to fit an eleven-year-old. Because little kids always look so darned cute in tuxedos. Because his mom will dress him -- a strategy several more-established stars would do well to imitate. Odds: 7 to 1

Kevin Spacey: Best Supporting Actor nominees can get away with a little flair -- an all-black ensemble, say, or a Regis Philbin-style monochrome shirt-and-tie combo. Not so for first time Best Actor nominees, especially ones touted as the Nicholsons of their generations. Spacey will no doubt arrive fully confident of a win, so the tux should be traditional, reserved, and smart. Plus, he's always been a snappy dresser because...well, you know. Odds: 5 to 2

Julianne Moore: Now that she's famously been chosen to fill Jodie Foster's shoes in the Silence of the Lambs sequel, she'll need to match Foster's previous awards-show performances, too. Jodie Foster is in -- way in -- with Armani, and her formal outfits always have the sleek, polished look for which Armani's known. Moore will do well to choose a similarly simple yet elegant gown -- nothing that will draw much attention to herself, possibly, but will rather make her look appropriately ensconced in Hollywood's inner circle, and not an ill-attired pretender to it. Odds: 7 to 1

Denzel Washington: Denzel Washington would look good in a hospital gown. He would look good in a pair of sleeper pyjamas with feet. He would look good in one of those muu-muus from Brando's wardrobe in Island of Doctor Moreau. He just looks good. Plus, he's an odds-on favourite actually to make an appearance at the podium, so he'll likely go classic and understated, which means he'll likely be the best-looking hombre in the whole damn place. Odds: 3 to 1

Worst-Dressed: Who will look like school on Sunday... No class?

Tom Hanks: No doubt the tux will be a straightforward, Syd Silver-type affair, but Tom has this thing about facial hair. He likes to grow a lot of it, and wear it on his chinny-chin-chin at awards shows. If recent paparazzi shots are any indication, he is, of late, nursing a huge hairy overgrowth of rabbinical proportions, apparently in connection to some current part he's playing. If he's still sporting serious beard come Oscar time, he could pull this one out. Odds: 8 to 1

Ashley Judd: Judd already earned a place in the annals of regrettable Oscar™ fashion two years ago, when she strode out on stage wearing a white gown with a skirt cut so high she had -- not to put too fine a point on it -- "camel-toe." Now that Double Jeopardy's insanely high grosses, and comically low production values, have minted her as a millennial Angie Dickinson, she'll show up in something appropriately garish and "sassy." Rhinestones may be involved. Odds: 7 to 1

Aimee Mann: Remember a couple of years ago when Elliott Smith was nominated for Best Song and performed "Miss Misery" at the Oscars™? Remember that weird, powdery-blue-grey suit he wore? Remember how he didn't comb his hair? Remember how you were vicariously embarrassed for him? We have a bad feeling that Aimee Mann will be giving a fashion performance in the Smith mold. We love Aimee Mann -- don't get us wrong -- but we have a feeling she's more likely to wear something from Screaming Mimi's than from Dolce & Gabbana, and we're scared that Joan Rivers will make fun of her for it. Odds: 4 to 1

Spike Jonze: One can only hope that Hollywood's favourite irascible hipster will go the Establishment route, in safe, standard black tie. But it's just as likely that he'll decide to "shake things up," and don something plucked from the "Sabotage" video shoot. Or maybe he'll come dressed as the choreographer from the "Praise You" video. Or maybe just wear a bolo tie. In any case, he's a top contender. Odds: 5 to 1

Gwyneth Paltrow: First of all, that much-imitated, much-fawned-over pink Ralph Lauren dress she wore last year? Not all that. Well, it might have been all that, had she had it altered to fit her tiny frame, but she didn't, and her tiny bosoms swam in the bodice like she was four years old and playing dress-up. But we digress. It seems that outfit casts a long shadow over Paltrow's closet, because her selections for various showbiz events since then have been somewhat disappointing. A tank top and pants? Sweetie, we know it was only the Golden Globes, but...come on. We believe that Gwyneth's recent fashion choices have been part of some ill-conceived plan to repudiate her public image, and since there is no more public event than the Oscar™ telecast, we believe that she'll wear something horrendously ugly. After all, the bigger the audience, the bigger the effect, right? Odds: 3 to 1

Robin Williams: Williams has traditionally combined the sartorial influences of a street mime with the "me so crazy" comedian's affinity for the wacky flourish -- rainbow suspenders, say, or bright red Converse hightops. Throw in a pair of obviously expensive and hideously ugly wire-frame glasses (in the past, he's sported specs that look like something Frank Lloyd Wright might have made out of a paperclip while idly chatting on the phone), and Williams emerges as the prohibitive favourite for worst-dressed male. Odds: 2 to 1

Wild Cards - Whose outfit could go either way?

Jennifer Lopez: On the one had, she really, really wants to be accepted as a member of the Hollywood elite, and not some skanky moll who cavorts in public with gun-toting thugs. On the other hand, she is a skanky moll who cavorts in public with gun-toting thugs. And she can't stand -- cannot stand -- that anyone, anywhere, does not have his eyes fixed directly on her at all times. She will go to great lengths to prevent this, even if it means wearing a housecoat open to the navel, so she looks for all the world like the leathery host of MadTV's "Cabana Chat." (See the Grammy Awards telecast for the most recent example of this.) So she could go either way. But you have to believe that one of her handlers will pull her aside and whisper, "Jennifer, stow the cleavage. It's the Oscars™, for crying out loud."

Courtney Love: Those of you who saw the frock Courtney slapped on for the Golden Globes will be surprised at her inclusion in this category rather than that directly above. Certainly, she's made an ass of herself at awards shows in the past, but the fact is that, as she proved a few years ago in that famous white Versace gown, she does have some sense of occasion. It takes a considerable ego, indeed, to take huge fashion risks at the Oscars™ (need we mention Cher?), and Oscar™ night seems to be the one night of the year that Courtney Love is actually able to restrain herself. On the other hand, that Golden Globes dress was really brutal, and she may yet surprise us by finding one even more appalling.

Trey Parker and Matt Stone: Like Robin Williams, above, they also suffer from the "me so crazy" comedians' syndrome, though their look generally owes more to the sitcom-writer's bullpen than the green room at the Improv. Still, they will no doubt seize this opportunity to thumb their noses at The Man and come dressed in something really stupid, like tuxedo shirts and shorts, or something like that -- sort of like those two goofs from your high school who came to the prom dressed as women.

- MFF & WC