For all of those who tune in for the Joan Rivers pre-show and then switch over to the Style network, Fametracker presents the odds for the Oscar pool that has nothing whatever to do with the Academy's votes: predicting who's going to look like hot shit, and who's going to look like hot ass.

Best-Dressed: They'll Stop Traffic!

Marcia Gay Harden: Marcia Gay Harden already has one Best Supporting Actress upset under her belt; no way is her ass taking the prize again this year, especially for such an unshowy role. However, there is one aspect for her 2001 win that she can, and in all likelihood will repeat: her beautifully soignée look. Harden set the fashion bar pretty high for herself at her first Oscar outing, so she'll have to outdo that gown this year. The only problem? She's pregnant. So we're predicting the most elegant Empire-waisted frock since...a pregnant Catherine Zeta-Jones won Best Supporting Actress last year. Odds: 5 to 1

Bill Murray: We're not talking about the speech, which we hope will be a scorcher. We're not talking about the hair, which, of late, has looked a bit like cotton batting soaked in lemon juice. We don't even know if he's going to shave. But we know he will look sharp. Why? Because when you give a scorching speech, people take you more seriously if you're in a crisp tux, rather than a Hawaiian shirt. And because Lost in Translation was all about how well Murray wears the penguin suit. He's a crab but he's not a slob. Now, if it was Dan Aykroyd, we'd be worried. Odds: 7 to 1

Naomi Watts: Remember when Courtney Love got snubbed by the Oscars for her performance in The People vs. Larry Flynt, and stuck it to the Academy by showing up at that year's ceremony looking all polished and...showered? This is the same sort of statement Naomi Watts is going to want to make this year. Many thought she was unjustly overlooked for Mulholland Drive, but recognition from the Academy didn't come for her until this year. (Courtney Love is still waiting, poor dear.) This is Watt's first time appearing before an international audience in a fancy gown, so now is not the time to take crazy chances; now's the time to get together with a reliable stylist who will help her to look very, very pretty. Odds: 3-1

Jude Law: That sizzling sound you hear is our retinas being seared by Law's dazzling countenance -- and the show is still a week and a half away! What do you think he's going to wear? A string tie? A mock turtleneck? This is Jude Freaking Law. The man is playing Errol Flynn in the upcoming Scorsese flick, The Aviator -- and he makes the real Errol Flynn look frumpy in retrospect. Jude Law will look good on Oscar night because he'd look good in Osh Kosh B'Gosh overalls. He'd look good in an ALF sweatshirt, a Speedo, and flip-flops. He'd look good zipped inside a giant rubber Daniel Baldwin suit. In fact, forget it. We shouldn't even have included him. Seriously, it's not fair. Odds: DISQUALIFIED

Charlize Theron: The reason Charlize Theron is going to win Best Actress this year is the same reason she's going to look her very best on Oscar night: she's nominated for a role in which she disguised her feminine good looks. It's worked for Hilary Swank, Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, and Nicole Kidman in the same category in recent years. Covering her teeth with caps and her skin with leathery latex proved to the Academy voters that she's willing to forego vanity for her art, but the movie wrapped a long time ago, and now she has to remind them all -- with a breathtaking Oscar ensemble -- that in Monster she was only pretending to be a nasty skank. Odds: 3-2

Worst-Dressed: They'll Stop a Clock!

Sofia Coppola: What do Kim Basinger, Geena Davis, and Demi Moore have in common? They all fancied themselves talented enough dilettante fashion designers to create their own Oscar outfits and then parade them in front of the world, with disastrous and embarrassing results. What have they to do with Sofia Coppola? Well, before settling on her current career path as a writer/director, Coppola briefly had a fashion line called Milk Fed. She's also modeled for Marc Jacobs magazine ads. So she thinks she knows a lot about fashion. But that doesn't mean she does. It might, however, mean she'll be too cocky to consult with a stylist, and show up in something "daring" and "unique" and "hideous." Also, we kind of admired her controversial decision to wear flats to the Golden Globes -- lord knows we don't go around in heels when we don't absolutely have to -- but if she tries to pull that crap at the Oscars, she'll be dead to us. Odds: 6 to 1

Johnny Depp: You know, for someone who genuinely doesn't seem to give a shit what people think about his onscreen choices, he sure tries hard with the outfits. He's like that guy in high school who always beamed a little too brightly when he wore that headscarf and one hoop earring. For starters, the James Dean glasses are a bad idea because that look belongs to James Dean. The floppy fedora should be exiled as well. You'd like us to think you found it in some quaint European haberdashery, but we know you stole it from the props department of your last film. Seriously, if you want to be respected as an eccentric genius who flips the bird to Hollywood, you have to go all the way. Brando, for example, went the muu-muu route. We'd like it so much better if Depp ditched the art-school specs and showed up in a Doug Henning unitard. Now that's a look that says "eccentric genius." Odds: 5 to 1

Diane Keaton: Poor Diane Keaton. First of all, she's not going to win. Which means that not only does she have to watch Charlize Theron trounce her onstage, but she'll get trounced by Theron on the red carpet as well. Because you just know Theron's going to be this year's coronated glamourpuss. And let's face it -- Keaton's been the go-to worst-dressed woman for a decade. The reviewers love to heap reflexive praise on Nicole and Gwyneth and Halle and then pile on poor Diane Keaton and Sally Kirkland when it comes to the worst-dressed picks. Why? All of a sudden, a woman can't wear a white blazer and matching granny boots? Are you saying that tinted rectangular shades are now seen only on Keaton and tourists at Venice Beach? That the Annie Hall look went out for milk twenty years ago and never came back? She was Annie Hall, people! She's allowed! Still, it could be a rough night. She can only hope Céline Dion shows up in one of those crazy Kriss-Kross tuxedos again. (Sally Kirkland, we've got no excuse for.) Odds: 3 to 1

Jack Black: Oscar snubee Black may have long since entered the mainstream by starring in kid-friendly movies and guest-starring on NBC sitcoms, but he still kind of has a reputation as an antic comedy outsider to uphold. We already know that he sees nothing wrong with doing talk-show appearances in velour tracksuits; even George Costanza was generally able to pull himself together a little better than that. So when Black gets the chance to show off in front of a worldwide audience when he presents an award at the Oscar ceremony, why would he play it safe by creeping onstage in an anonymous black Armani tux? No, he's going to rock a white polyester three-piece or a spangled onesie or even that dress he wore to impersonate Liza Minnelli in EW a couple of months ago. Or something unlike any of those -- something so insane we can't even stretch our minds enough to imagine it. Odds: 2 to 1

Jennifer Lopez: Okay, we know she's not coming. But think about it -- do you really put it past her to make a surprise appearance on the red carpet, her high beams shining for all of America to enjoy? Red carpets are like flypaper to this woman! We never thought we'd say this but, J.Lo, the show just won't be the same without one of your obscenely sheer shower curtains or bizarre tangerine drapery sets. What's an Oscars without at least one frantic close-up or cutaway to avoid televising your golden globes? We're really going to miss seeing them -- er, "you." Odds: 20 to 1

Wild Cards - They May or May Not Stop Making (Fashion) Sense

Benicio Del Toro: We just don't know what to expect from this dude. He looked perfectly respectable when he won Best Supporting Actor three years ago, true. And he's still sexy in kind of an ugly way. But whenever we've seen him lately, he's looked like five miles of bad road. What if he gets up on February 29 -- in the early afternoon, probably -- and decides just to throw on whatever sweaty t-shirt and soiled boxers happen to be at hand? Well...what then?!

Nicole Kidman: People, for reals: when's the last time she looked good at a formal event? Back in the Cruise years, she dressed not to upstage His Tininess (with the exception of that one acid green gown in '97); there was a lot of boring beige and puce. Last year, when she was winning every award going for The Hours, it was one misfire after another -- the pale lavender sleeveless mullet dress at the Golden Globes, followed by that too-sheer navy affair at the Oscars. And the less said about this year's Golden Globes "gown" (and that's using the term loosely) -- a cross between a figure-skating costume and a pawn-shop jewellery counter, topped off with a gold headband?! -- the better. Someone is giving her bad advice, is what we're saying. And if she listens to whomever that is when it comes to her Oscar-night dress, instead of whatever better angels were in charge when she wore that great Christian Dior gown back in the late '90s, then she's going to look gross.

Djimon Hounsou: Djimon Hounsou is really a lovely man but he worries us a bit. You know what we mean. He's just barely shaken off the memory of Amistad. And, sadly, if you're a huge African man named Djimon in Hollywood, you probably have trouble enough getting casting directors to think of you wearing anything other than chains. We suspect he will look quite good on Oscar night. He is a former model, after all. But just as we'd shudder to see Ewan McGregor ever show up in a kilt, we suggest he might want to think twice before going overboard with any sartorial shows of national pride. Tasteful accents, yes; Erykah Badu, no.

Keisha Castle-Hughes: Aw, she's just a baby! She doesn't know what she's doing! She may not even need to wear a bra yet! This could be bad. The argument in favour of her probably looking good at the Oscars is that her mom will probably help her to pick out something appropriate, and that designers aren't likely to dress a thirteen-year-old in anything too Aguileran. The argument against is that designers tend to make kids' clothes more cutesy, more garish, and more dorky than those in which they dress grown-ups. It could really go either way. Unless she decides to give her movie a shout-out by showing up with henna tattoos on her face.