Every year, you look forward to the Oscars for the note-perfect dresses, the dazzling glamour, and the parade of celebrity royalty enjoying Hollywood's biggest night of the year. Yes, and you also watch the Indy 500 because you thrill at the precision timing of the crackerjack pit crews.

Not to get all Ed McMahon about it, but we all know that one of the best things about Oscar night are the bloopers: the gaffes, the mishaps, the miscues, the obvious celebrity fuck-ups, and the obviously fucked-up celebrities. So what can we expect this year? Here, we handicap Oscar nights most likely flubs, flops, and faux-pas.

The Case of the Censored Soliloquy

After winning his second straight Oscar for Best Actor, Russell Crowe snarls at the crowd, then attempts to read a thirty-stanza poem that he's written to mark the occasion. When, after twenty minutes, the music swells to cut him off, he becomes enraged, rushes backstage, and beats Peter Coyote senseless.

Odds of this happening: 3 to 1

The Case of the Underdressed Guest

In an effort to steer attention away from actual nominees, Jennifer Lopez arrives wearing a satin floor-length skirt and two large magnifying glasses tied together like a bikini top and positioned over her breasts. On her naked belly, she's drawn a crooked smile, and around her neck she wears a lightning-bolt pendant; she tells Joan Rivers that the outfit is "an homage to Harry Potter." Sadly, Potter-loving children across America are unable to enjoy the full effect of the outfit when the show's producers place a large red box over Ms. Lopez's torso whenever she appears onscreen. Cris Judd becomes so enraged that he runs backstage and beats Peter Coyote senseless.

Odds of this happening: 6 to 1

The Case of the Troubling Tribute

Underdog Best Actor winner Sean Penn surprises the audience when, as a tribute to the mentally challenged, he delivers his acceptance speech as Sam, his character from I Am Sam. "You don't know how great it feels when you try and try and try and finally it's good enough!" he screams, to a dumbstruck and uncomfortable audience. Enraged, Peter Coyote runs out from backstage to restrain Penn, and Penn beats him senseless.

Odds of this happening: 10 to 1

The Case of the Garbled Gratitude

In the worst case of spousal neglect since Hilary Swank failed to thank her husband in her Oscar acceptance speech, surprise Best Supporting Actor winner Ethan Hawke mistakenly ends his speech by thanking "the most important woman in my life -- Oprah." Uma, mortified, fails to beat Peter Coyote senseless, but later sends him a threatening telegram.

Odds of this happening if Hawke wins: 15 to 1
Odds of Hawke winning: 500 to 1

The Case of the Purloined Statuette

In an unfortunate miscue, rightful winner Marisa Tomei fails to receive her Best Supporting Actress Oscar when presenter Benicio Del Toro forgets his glasses and mistakenly reads the name in the envelope as "Jack Palance." Palance quickly bounds to the stage and grabs the statue, thanking the Academy, "our host, Billy Crystal," and the miracles made possible by modern pharmaceuticals. Several security guards attempt to wrestle the Oscar from Palance, who picks up Peter Coyote and beats the guards senseless.

Odds of this actually happening: 50 to 1, 100 to 1 if Jack Palance dies before the Oscar are held