Five years ago, when the Academy decided to try someone who'd never had any association with Comic Relief as the host of the Oscars, the job went to Steve Martin, and we -- apparently alone among viewers of the telecast -- thought that was a great decision and hoped he'd be back. Of course, we thought that the year Letterman hosted, too, so we should not have been surprised when Martin was not invited back.

Lo those many moons ago, when we looked around the field of potential Oscar hosts, we floated such names as Conan O'Brien, Chris Rock, and Jon Stewart, though we weren't so hopeful: we set their odds of hosting the show at 12 to 1, 50 to 1, and 75 to 1, respectively. Since then, Rock has done it (last year), Stewart is about to do it (Sunday), whereas the dude we thought most likely of the three to get tapped for it hasn't managed it (yet), he has at least practised on the Emmys.

We suggested Oscar hosts we thought didn't stand a chance...and the Academy apparently heeded us and gave them a shot. So as we turn our eyes once again toward the future (all the way to the year 2000!), we consider both those that seem to be decent contenders according to conventional wisdom, as well as a few that will probably only get the gig the year we actually produce the ceremony. (You hear that, Academy? The gauntlet has been thrown! Prove us wrong...which in this case is actually proving us right!)

Jim Carrey

Assets: Billy Crystal actually endorsed him as a potential host back in 2001, and the subsequent success of Bruce Almighty cemented him as one of Hollywood's few high-concept-comedy sure things.

Liabilities: The fact they haven't asked him already (or, we suppose, they may have asked him and he turned it down) suggests that the Academy is still wary of his loose-cannon nature. As they should be. Anyone who makes a gay hustler joke while introducing Woody and Buzz from Toy Story has given you reason to fear him.

Long-term Prognosis: Lukewarm. The recent choices of Chris Rock and Jon Stewart suggest the Academy wants to appeal to the kids. But not the twelve-year-old kids.

Odds: 3 to 1

Robin Williams

Assets: Ah, the old chestnut.

Liabilities: Ah, the old, aging, unfunny, grating chestnut.

Long-term Prognosis: Williams has the same impediment as Carrey -- the "if not before, why now?" syndrome -- with the added liability of...you know, his crushing unfunniness.

Odds: 4 to 1

Ellen DeGeneres

Assets: Anarchic, observational stream-of-consciousness comic style tickles kids of all ages.

Liabilities: "A dame hosting the Oscars in a pantsuit? Now I've seen everything!"

Long-term Prognosis: We like DeGeneres a lot -- it's hard to be funny when you're so determined to park it in the middle of the road, and she manages it admirably -- and she certainly has taken over Rosie O'Donnell's mantle as America's Favourite Non-Threatening Lesbian. But the Academy may not want to risk the possibility that she's been a radical separatist sleeper agent, just waiting to get onstage at the Kodak to agitate for same-sex marriage or cheaper U-Haul rates or whatever it is the gals want these days.

Odds: 5 to 2

Owen Wilson and Ben Stiller

Assets: Several co-presenting Oscar gigs have been well-received; their practice of working together on so many movies kind of makes them our generation's Hope and Crosby.

Liabilities: They may have lost us somewhere around Starsky & Hutch.

Long-Term Prognosis: It's starting to become uncomfortably obvious that Stiller's comic persona as a neurotic rage monkey is not exaggerated very much compared to what he's really like; nevertheless, America does love a cranky bastard -- especially when he's paired with a cheery stoner who isn't scared to make ego-deflating jokes about him, even at the risk of having Stiller just crack, finally, and break said stoner's ribs on live TV.

Odds: 7 to 2

Steve Carell and Stephen Colbert

Assets: Actually, quite a few. Carell's got box-office clout, while Colbert has political cred. They're both called Stev(ph)en, so that's one less name for Karl Malden to remember. And they've worked together before!

Liabilities: Neither is quite famous enough to grab the gig on his own, so the Academy would have to be willing to go with the Even Stev(ph)en concept. Plus, the Academy seems to favor schmaltzy showmen (Billy Crystal) over deadpan quipsters (Steve Martin). And many of the Academy members might not realize that Colbert's right-wing lunatic schtick is an act.

Long-Term Prognosis: Two more hits, and Carell's ready to host all by his lonesome.

Odds: Together: 7 to 2; Carell alone: 8 to 1

Conan O'Brien

Assets: Proved his chops hosting TV's second-biggest awards show; has become enough of a fixture in the comedy Establishment that he'll be taking over what was once Johnny Carson's network and time slot.

Liabilities: That is only due to happen when Jay Leno retires -- and does that guy appear to you to be considering giving up "Jaywalking" any time soon?

Long-term Prognosis: Maybe once he moves to 11:35 and becomes all safe and boring, he'll be a good choice, but in the era of "If They Mated"? Probably not so much.

Odds to Host: 8 to 1

Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn

Assets: They're the new Owen Wilson and Ben Stiller!

Liabilities: One tremendously popular, tremendously juvenile R-rated movie does not necessarily guarantee a comic partnership that will last the ages.

Long-Term Prognosis: It would piss off Ben Stiller so much -- which, depending on how many enemies he's made over the years, may mean that those in charge would make it happen just to stick it to him.

Odds: 10 to 1

Sarah Silverman

Assets: She was in The New Yorker!

Liabilities: We're pretty irreverent, and even we don't want to watch the Oscars and hear jokes about the smell of Jimmy Kimmel's balls. Though an opening monologue that ended, "And then Jack Nicholson raped me" would be pretty funny.

Long-Term Prognosis: She's kind of like the female, potty-mouthed, never-been-on-the-cover-of-Time, looks-better-in-a-strapless gown version of Jon Stewart, so -- not too good.

Odds: 75 to 1

Tyra Banks

Assets: Like DeGeneres, has daytime talk-show experience; like Whoopi Goldberg, knows how to toggle between a standard American English accent and a flamboyant, neck-rolling, "Girl, please" ghetto patois; interviewed celebrities on the Oscar red carpet that time.

Liabilities: May not be able to resist berating losers, "I was rooting for you! WE WERE ALL ROOTING FOR YOU!!!"

Long-Term Prognosis: You know how there's an order of succession for the Presidency? Tyra Banks is the Secretary of Agriculture of would-be Oscar hosts.

Odds: 95 to 1

Dave Chappelle

Assets: He's got the buzz factor, and is an organically grown hero to exactly the demographic the Oscars seem so eager to attract. Plus, Stewart's selection suggests that basic cable is no longer considered the Siberia of show business.

Liabilities: Cuckoo! Cuckoo!

Long-Term Prognosis: Actually, we kind of respect Chapelle's AWOL act -- but do you think the Academy's going to risk the hosting gig on (a) a guy who may or may not show up; (b) a guy who, if he does show up, may well be baked out of his gourd; (c) a guy who, if he does show up, and is stone-cold sober, will undoubtedly sprinkle his monologue with the word "bitch"?

Odds: We'll give you 100 to 1, but trust us: this pony won't win, place, or -- most importantly -- show.